The 2026 AFL season is heating up, with just two rounds left to decide the premiers. The final scenarios for each contender are laid out, with the wildcard blockbusters looming large. Here's a breakdown of the remaining games and the implications for each team.
Fremantle (18-3, 143.4%)
Fremantle is in a strong position to win the minor premiership, but they need to win just once more to secure it. They face Adelaide in Round 23 and Carlton in Round 24. The Dockers are likely to win the minor premiership, but they won't want to lose to Carlton, as it would make Round 24 very interesting.
Sydney Swans (16-5, 134%)
Sydney is virtually locked into the top two, and they need to win just once more to clinch second place. They face Essendon in Round 23 and North Melbourne in Round 24. The Swans are more likely to catch Fremantle for first than be caught for third.
Hawthorn (14-6-1, 118.2%)
Hawthorn needs to win twice more to lock up the top four, and they face Collingwood in Round 23 and West Coast in Round 24. They could drop out of the top four if they lose one more game, and losing twice would be disastrous. Hawthorn's chances of hosting a qualifying final are slim.
Brisbane Lions (14-7, 117.8%)
The Lions need to win twice more to lock up the top four, and they face Gold Coast in Round 23 and Collingwood in Round 24. They are a chance of pinching third if Hawthorn drops a game. The Lions are in a strong position to clinch the double chance.
Adelaide Crows (14-7, 117.6%)
Adelaide needs to win twice more to lock up the top four, and they face Fremantle in Round 23 and GWS in Round 24. The Crows are favorites for seventh, and they will be battling Geelong to avoid the first wildcard spot.
Melbourne (14-7, 107.6%)
Melbourne needs to win twice more to lock up the top six, and they face Port Adelaide in Round 23 and Western Bulldogs in Round 24. They have a chance of pinching a top-four spot, but they can't afford a loss.
Geelong (13-8, 120.6%)
Geelong needs to win twice more to lock up the top six, and they face North Melbourne in Round 23 and Richmond in Round 24. Their path to the top six has narrowed, and they face a risk of falling into the wildcard.
Collingwood (12-8-1, 106.4%)
Collingwood needs to win twice more to lock up the top six, and they face Hawthorn in Round 23 and Brisbane in Round 24. They are likely to remain in eighth, and they face a tough wildcard final match-up.
Western Bulldogs (12-9, 93.9%)
The Bulldogs have already clinched a finals spot, but they need to win once more to secure a better wildcard position. They face Carlton in Round 23 and Melbourne in Round 24.
Carlton (11-10, 99.6%)
Carlton needs to win once more to lock up the wildcard, and they face Western Bulldogs in Round 23 and Fremantle in Round 24. They are in a strong position to clinch an incredible finals berth.
St Kilda (9-12, 101.6%)
St Kilda can still play finals, even without Nas. They need to win twice more while Carlton loses twice. The Saints face Richmond in Round 23 and Gold Coast in Round 24.
GWS Giants (9-12, 98.9%)
The Giants need to win twice more to lock up the wildcard, and they face West Coast in Round 23 and Adelaide in Round 24. A brutal loss to the Suns has probably ended their season.
North Melbourne (9-12, 90.9%)
North Melbourne can mathematically play finals, but they would need to beat Geelong and Sydney by large margins while hoping results go their way. It's unlikely they will make the finals.
